Hi Dana,
I have to agree with your sentiments, especially after my recent visit to the area in question and my subsequent conversation with you and "Bridgton" Bill.
To me the whole concept is a natural, albeit one that will necessarily be broken down into phases.
In the first phase, a tie-in to the downtown Bridgton merchants would be anticipated - to generate foot-traffic and provide initial marketing funds. The second phase would be to expand the promotional reach of the project by tying in the projected Depot Street development.
But no sooner did I realize this, the question of "what kind of numbers are we really talking about" came up. So while I was there two Sunday's ago waiting for my breakfast at Rick's Diner, I performed a little, ad hoc analysis of the prospective business potential based upon purely drive-by traffic.
Using a basic figure of 12 vehicles/minute, which was the observed Sunday morning traffic volume along Main Street in front of Rick's, I came up with a late summer season traffic flow of 720 cars/ hour. I then compared this with the official MDOT year-round (not seasonally adjusted) traffic count of 9570 cars/ day
measured at the intersection of Main and Church Streets (the closest location for which there was data.) I did this as a check because I wanted to see how credible my count was.
Assuming the busiest part of the day is from 10am to 5pm, (a 7-hour period), a reasonable assumption would be that my peak hourly traffic flow number would have to work out to something less than twice the mean, year-round traffic flow (MYRTF) as based upon the official figure. So I checked the MDOT numbers on-line, which yielded a figure of 9570 cars per day (MYRTF). I divided 9570 cars by 24 hours to arrive at a mean hourly traffic volume figure of slightly more than 398. This meant that according to my basis of estimate my number would have to come out less than roughly 796 cars per hour, during the peak time for my estimate to be credible. 720 cars/hour-peak is indeed less than 796, so I concluded that my basis of estimate for peak hour, in season traffic volume is in fact credible.
That means that over the 7-hour peak period, 5040 cars would pass the Bridgton yard site during the height of the summer season. Assuming a 1% impulse rate on drive-by visitation, a minimal, railbus-only operation at Bridgton yard would expect to draw an average of 50 passengers per day to start. At $3 a head, this would yield an income of $150 a day. Subtract half of that for labor and operating expenses and you come up with an operating revenue of $75/day or a total of $7,500 for the 100-day summer operating season. Not bad for year one, assuming a volunteer-based effort with no debt. The additional multiplier effect for the community would be equal to or greater than this figure because it would most likely generate foot traffic for local businesses - especially if an all-day ticket were available to keep people around for a while.
With local advertising at least in part funded by local merchants, we should be able to double the impulse figure to 100 passengers per day or $15,000 a year for both the railway and local businesses. Again not a bad figure for Phase I.
Phase two would be ushered in by the completion of the Depot Street development. At minimum, this could be expected to double ridership again for a total revenue of $30,000/year or 200 passengers per operating day. Again not a bad figure.
Further increases would depend upon continued good management, the expansion of local and visitor support, better marketing, volunteer base growth, and museum and operating expansions.
"Bridgton" Bill foresees Phase "n" expansion to extend 1 or 2 miles to the local ball field. This would provide an operational destination for trains as people would have something to do at the other end of the line. Phase "n+1" might extend the line through the scenically attractive stretch from the ball field along Willett Brook to Sandy Creek. Subsequent phases might possibly extend from there beyond, along the old line to Perleys Mill and maybe even Swamp Road. It all depends upon how closely the effort can manage to satisfy the needs and concerns of local and other stakeholders.
Imagine this picture ...
A narrow gauge steam train, possibly pulled by B&SR #8, arrives from Bridgton at a rebuilt Perleys Mills station. The station is fitted to sell train tickets, but is also set up as a convenience store for local residents, summer campers, 4-wheelers, and other visitors. There is a passing track, maybe a replica or restoration of Hancock tank, perhaps even a turntable. A small swimming area has been prepared for passengers on the shore of Pickerel Pond near the station, so there is no visitor impact to local residents along Hancock Pond. Maybe there is a jungle gym and paddle boats too. Possibly a licensee for horse and carriage rides. The main line between Bridgton and Perleys is paralleled by an ATV/snowmobile/hiking trail, built using gravel from the large pit near the big rock. Sometimes the trail runs right alongside the n.g., sometimes it veers off, cross country, by another route. Maybe there is a stop at Ingalls Road where visitors can hike the trail up to Naramissic. Maybe there is a stop at South Bridgton for canoers, campers, and hikers.
A land on many uses indeed.
Best Regards,
Glenn
